NASA: Old Decaying Space Probe, Cosmos 482, to Impact Earth May 8 – 13th at Speeds of 150 MPH; Risk to Human Life Minimal

NEW YORK, NY – A Soviet-era spacecraft, Cosmos 482, launched in 1972 as part of the USSR’s Venera program aimed at exploring Venus, is anticipated to make an uncontrolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere between May 8 and May 13, 2025. Due to a launch malfunction, the spacecraft failed to escape Earth’s orbit and has been circling the planet for over five decades.

The remaining component in orbit is the lander module, weighing approximately 495 kilograms (1,091 pounds). Designed to withstand the extreme conditions of Venus’s atmosphere, the lander is equipped with a robust titanium heat shield, increasing the likelihood that it could survive reentry and reach Earth’s surface intact.

Predicting the exact reentry location is challenging, but experts estimate that the lander could descend anywhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude, encompassing a significant portion of the Earth’s surface, including major landmasses and oceans. Given that approximately 70% of the Earth’s surface is covered by water, the probability of the lander impacting a populated area is low.

Recent satellite imagery suggests that the lander’s parachute may have deployed; however, after decades in space, it is unlikely to function effectively during reentry. If the lander survives atmospheric descent, it could impact the surface at speeds around 150 miles per hour (242 kilometers per hour).

While the risk to human life is minimal, authorities advise that if any debris is found, it should not be touched due to potential hazards such as residual fuel or sharp materials. Under international space law, specifically the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, Russia retains ownership of the spacecraft and may seek to recover any surviving components.

As the long-defunct Soviet Venus probe Cosmos 482 hurtles toward an expected reentry into Earth’s atmosphere this week, interest is growing over what exactly might fall from the sky – and whether there’s any real risk. With the titanium-shielded capsule potentially surviving its descent after more than 50 years in orbit, many are asking key questions about the spacecraft, its history, and the potential impact of its return. Here’s what to know.

What is Cosmos 482, and why is it falling back to Earth?

Cosmos 482 was a Soviet space probe launched in 1972 intended for Venus. It failed to leave Earth’s orbit due to a malfunction and has remained in low Earth orbit for over 50 years. It is now expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere sometime around May 8–13, 2025.

What part of the spacecraft is reentering?

Experts believe it’s the entry capsule (or lander) – a titanium-shielded component designed to survive Venus’s harsh conditions. This makes it more likely to survive reentry and reach Earth’s surface intact.

Where will Cosmos 482 land?

The exact reentry point of Cosmos 482 remains unknown due to a number of complex variables, including fluctuations in atmospheric density, solar activity, and the object’s unpredictable tumbling motion. These factors make it extremely difficult for scientists to pinpoint where or when the capsule will come down, even within a few hours of reentry. What is known is that its orbit crosses a wide band of the planet – roughly between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude – a zone that includes nearly all of Africa, South America, Australia, most of the United States, southern Europe, and large portions of Asia. Despite this broad range, experts believe the most likely outcome is that the capsule will fall into one of the world’s oceans, which cover about 70% of Earth’s surface. Still, the small chance of a landfall means global tracking agencies will be monitoring the descent closely.

How dangerous is this reentry for people?

The risk is very low. Experts estimate the chance of injury or death is about 1 in 25,000, which is lower than many other past space debris incidents. Still, because of its dense construction, it’s not impossible for it to cause damage if it hits a populated area.

Could the spacecraft’s parachute work during reentry?

Unlikely. The parachute may have deployed in space, but it has been dormant and exposed to the space environment for over 50 years, making it highly unlikely to function properly.

What should people do if they find debris?

Do not touch it. Debris could contain hazardous materials, sharp edges, or residual fuel. Report it immediately to local authorities or emergency services.

Does Russia still own the spacecraft?

Yes. Under the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, Russia maintains legal ownership of Cosmos 482 and may seek to recover any surviving pieces after reentry.

How common is it for space junk to fall back to Earth?

This happens several times a year, usually with old rocket stages or satellites. Most burn up on reentry, but large or specially shielded components, like Cosmos 482, can sometimes survive and reach the ground.

Why are some people spelling it as “Kosmos”482 and others “Cosmos” 482?

The variation in spelling – Kosmos 482 vs. Cosmos 482 – comes from transliteration differences between the original Russian and English. “Kosmos” is the direct transliteration of the Russian word Космос, which means “space.” “Cosmos” is the Anglicized (English-adapted) version. U.S. media and NASA publications generally use “Cosmos” to match English spelling norms.